“Hanging on a Cliff”: A Trader’s Candid Take on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and What Comes Next
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Bitcoin: A third consecutive red weekly candle would be a classic warning; prior instances preceded ~20% drawdowns (potential path to ~$85K).
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Ethereum: Monthly structure still constructive after a 100% run, but weekly momentum is pinching down; a 20–30% pullback maps to $3.4K–$3.0K.
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Macro wildcards: Rising Global M2 and looming Fed rate cuts could “save the day” and re-ignite risk.
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Bright spot: Solana shows improving weekly money flow—if one large-cap were to buck weakness, this might be it.
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Edge for traders: Process + position sizing > everything. The “turtle” wins.
The Real Reason Bitcoin, Ethereum, & Altcoins Are Crashing! | Trading Crypto
Meet the Guest: Cryptoface, Live-Size Risk
Few traders stream $10–$20M positions live. Cryptoface does—and he’s done it for nearly a decade, building tools like Market Cipher and a following that respects posting wins and losses. The persona (mask and all) is the shtick; the transparency and size are the hook.
What Separates Good from Bad Traders
Two pillars:
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A repeatable process — patterns and indicator combos you actually trust.
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Mastery of self — discipline, exits, and emotional control.
He favors swing trading over frantic day trading. The market makers (and their AI) have heavier tools than retail; you don’t win sling-shots vs. missiles. A “good month” is a few clean setups executed with restraint.
Bitcoin: The Three-Red-Candle Problem
On the weekly, a third red candle into Sunday would echo past sequences that led to ~20% slide. Mapping that move puts BTC near $85,000. Momentum on Market Cipher is rolling over, and daily money flow has bled lower—think “watering the desert” in reverse.
Timing? The last comparable downswing spanned ~80 days; subsequent ones shortened (~40, maybe ~20). Translation: volatility compressions can resolve faster—down or up.
Base case: Respect risk into month/weekly closes; don’t assume autumn levitation.
Ethereum: Monthly Strong, Weekly Wobbly
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Monthly: RSI and momentum “clipped” higher earlier this year; ETH rallied ~100% off that thrust. Structure remains constructive.
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Weekly: Momentum now pinching down; if BTC extends lower, ETH can follow with torque.
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Levels by analogy:
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-20%: ~$3,400
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-30%: ~$3,000
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One nuance: RSIs nested together can make upside/downside move hard. If they nest on the way down, it’s a steeper slide.
Macro: Can M2 and the Fed Bail Us Out?
Two non-chart pillars:
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Global M2 is expanding (liquidity backdrop).
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Rate cuts—whether in September or later—lower discount rates and tend to re-risk portfolios.
Cryptoface treats rate cuts as the bigger practical catalyst; the four-year Bitcoin cycle (we’re in the volatile Year 4) sets the stage for snapbacks if a policy tailwind arrives. He’s seen “good CPI = instant pump, then dump” head-fakes; the real turn may be policy, not prints.
The Outlier Bid: Solana’s Money Flow
If one large cap ignores the gloom, his pick is Solana: on the weekly, money flow is curling up with open momentum. It’s not a guarantee—but it’s a relative strength tell amid broad hesitation.
Decoupling: Altcoins Doing Their Own Thing
For the first time in a while, majors and alts aren’t marching in lockstep—some names are diverging. That’s often a late-pullback phenomenon or a rotation prelude. It can also whipsaw undisciplined traders.
Cycle Highs: The Big Ifs
If the four-year rhythm holds and the Fed provides lift:
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BTC base range for the cycle (personal bias): Low-$80Ks to ~$150K on the high side.
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Wars, geopolitics, and liquidity kinks can amplify or mute the path, but policy + liquidity remain the central levers.
How to Survive (and Profit) in This Tape
Best advice from the desk:
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Pick three strategies (patterns/indicator stacks) and master them.
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Position sizing is everything. You can be right 30% of the time and still win if size is sane and you ride winners.
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Be the turtle. A few A-setups per month > constant chop.
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Respect weekly context. A third red close isn’t destiny—but it changes risk.
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Plan both ways. Map invalidation, hedges, and where you’ll add if policy flips the tape.
“This was my worst trading month in 3–4 years—because of position sizing.” —Cryptoface
Bottom Line
Near term, the weekly warns of more downside risk for BTC/ETH. Solana shows a glimmer. The macro wildcard—rate cuts—could reset the board quickly. Until clarity lands, process and sizing trump predictions.
