Bitcoin Breaks Out Ahead of CPI and FOMC: Why This Week Could Be Historic for Crypto

Bitcoin Breaks Out Ahead of CPI and FOMC: Why This Week Could Be Historic for Crypto

Bitcoin is breaking out right now, and the timing couldn’t be more critical. With key macroeconomic events ahead—including U.S. inflation prints and Jerome Powell’s September 17th FOMC speech—crypto markets are positioning for a potentially explosive move.

Prepare For Alt Season

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The Macro Backdrop: CPI, PPI, and the Fed

• Producer Price Index (PPI): Set to release Wednesday, PPI gives an early glimpse into inflation trends.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Thursday’s CPI release is the real market mover. If inflation comes in lower than expected, it dramatically increases the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Currently, Polymarket assigns a 10% probability to a surprise 50 basis point rate cut in September. While the base case is still a smaller cut, the CPI number could shift those odds significantly.

Why does this matter? Because risk assets—especially crypto—thrive in a rate-cutting environment. If Powell signals deeper easing, markets could go parabolic out of the FOMC meeting.

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Bitcoin’s Technical Picture: Chasing 124K

Bitcoin recently rejected at $113.5K, but it is now making a push back toward that level. The big test will be whether BTC can flip this resistance and continue its uptrend toward $124K—the current all-time high.

• Current trade setups show momentum building.

• On the 4-hour chart, BTC bounced strongly from $108.4K, and positions entered at that level are already showing +30% gains.

• The Fear & Greed Index sits at just 42 (fear/neutral) despite Bitcoin trading above $100K and Ethereum flirting with its highs. Historically, such low sentiment at elevated prices has preceded massive rallies.

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Risk-On Markets: Why Small Caps Matter

The stock market opened green this week, with risk appetite building ahead of rate cuts. One of the most important indicators is the Russell 2000 index, which tracks U.S. small caps.

• In 2021, the Russell 2000’s parabolic move coincided with crypto’s last bull run.

• Today, the index is once again pressing against its double-top all-time high.

• On the two-week RSI, it’s still only at 61, well below the overheated 76 level seen in prior peaks.

If the Russell breaks into new highs, it could trigger another wave of risk-on flows—and altcoins stand to benefit the most.

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Altcoins: The Early Stages of a Season?

The Altcoin Season Index is edging closer to bullish territory, but hasn’t flashed a full signal yet. That’s exactly why now may be the best positioning phase. By the time the index officially signals “alt season,” history shows it’s usually too late to buy long-term bags.

Some standout setups right now:

• SEI: Trading near $0.30, SEI has been capped by a downward sloping resistance line since topping $1. A weekly close above resistance could trigger a sharp rally to all-time highs.

• Casper (CSPR): Also sitting beneath long-term resistance, a breakout here could spark a sustained uptrend.

• Sui (SUI): Just bounced off the 200-day moving average and the golden pocket support—early positioning looks favorable.

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The Degen Corner: Meme and Micro-Caps

For higher-risk, higher-reward plays:

• Millie (MILLIE): The #1 meme coin on SEI. Its chart shows classic compression, a precursor to explosive breakouts. With SEI itself on the verge of a macro move, Millie could multiply quickly.

• Peak (PEAK): A low-cap layer one for DePIN. It has repeatedly bounced from strong support at 5.8, making it an attractive DCA candidate.

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Conclusion: A Potential Perfect Storm

This week is shaping up as one of the most important for markets in 2025:

• Macro catalysts (CPI + FOMC) may confirm the start of a sustained rate-cutting cycle.

• Bitcoin is breaking out and testing critical resistance.

• Altcoins are lining up with bullish structures, while fear remains surprisingly low.

If Powell delivers a dovish signal on September 17th, we could see the next leg of the crypto bull run, with Bitcoin aiming at new highs and altcoins entering their long-awaited season.

Key takeaway: Now is the time to have your portfolio positioned—because when everyone finally admits it’s alt season, it may already be too late.