Bitcoin Market Update: Is the Bottom In?
Bitcoin’s price action is at a critical juncture, and in this analysis, I’ll break down what I’m looking for before initiating long-term buy positions. With key technical indicators and an upcoming major crypto event, there are many factors to consider. Let’s dive into the details.
Crypto Summit & Market Impact
One of the biggest upcoming events in the crypto world is the Crypto Summit on Friday, where key players, including Donald Trump and the Crypto Council, are expected to discuss bullish developments. Many in the space hope for major endorsements, such as the U.S. government embracing Bitcoin, but historically, “sell the news” events are common in crypto.
Key Considerations:
- Bitcoin has seen pre-event price pumps, followed by sharp sell-offs.
- Monday’s price action demonstrated how hype-based trading often fades quickly.
- No rush to buy before the event—waiting for confirmation is crucial.
Bitcoin Daily Price Action Analysis
Current Range & Critical Reversal Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading within a range, and the key breakout point that would invalidate my short-term bearish bias is:
✔️ A close above Monday’s high (rejected level).
✔️ If that happens, we can resume the bullish trend confidently.
Until then, I expect at least one more move downward, possibly driven by event-related volatility.
Meta Signals Daily Long Setup
A major meta signal setup has triggered on the daily timeframe, which doesn’t happen often. These signals, provided by Meta Signals, indicate a potential long opportunity:
- Entry Price: ~$87,000
- Stop Loss: Close below $83,000
- Target 1: $91,500 (~70% probability)
- Target 2: $95,200 (~50% probability)
- Target 3: New all-time high (~$114,000) (low probability)
⚠️ Conclusion: While promising, confirmation is needed before acting.
Bitcoin Daily RSI Analysis: Finding the Bottom
A historically low RSI (Relative Strength Index) reading occurred last week:
- Dropped below 25, a level seen only during major corrections.
- Similar RSI levels in 2023, 2021, and 2018 led to long-term rallies.
- Bitcoin has historically rebounded multiples higher from these levels.
🔍 Key Takeaway: RSI suggests Bitcoin may be forming a bottom, but confirmation is required.
Bitcoin Daily Jewel Analysis
Another powerful indicator, the Jewel momentum oscillator, aligns with the RSI signal:
✔️ The Jewel’s cyan line dipped below 25, followed by a bullish green background—a historically strong reversal signal.
✔️ Similar setups in past market cycles led to substantial price recoveries.
⚠️ However: If Bitcoin is in a bear market, this could result in only a short-term bounce.
Potential Buy Zone if Bitcoin Drops
Historical Support Levels: The Moving Average Strategy
A proven buy zone in previous Bitcoin cycles has been between two moving averages:
- 200 Simple Moving Average (White Line)
- 377 Exponential Moving Average (Blue Line)
📉 If Bitcoin tests this zone, long-term buys could be highly favorable.
🚀 Historically, bullish cycles have bounced from this region before rallying further.
Bitcoin Weekly & Monthly Volatility Analysis
📊 Volatility Indicators Suggest a Massive Move is Coming
- The Weekly BBWP (Bollinger Band Width Percentile) is at extreme lows, comparable to:
- May 2024 (last major consolidation)
- Pre-bull run breakout levels in 2023, 2022, and 2020
- Monthly BBWP also signals a high-probability breakout scenario.
🛑 Key Takeaway: A massive move is brewing, but direction is uncertain.
Bitcoin Market Cycle Bias
Despite short-term uncertainty, my macro view remains bullish:
✔️ Bitcoin has not broken the cycle structure.
✔️ The yearly moving average reconnection aligns with past cycles.
✔️ If Bitcoin drops below November’s low, my bullish cycle bias would shift.
Bitcoin Buy Conditions & Long-Term Entry Criteria
🔎 I am waiting for one of these two confirmations before entering long-term positions:
1️⃣ A buy signal on the Hash Ribbons Indicator (a fundamental-based signal).
2️⃣ Either of the following price-based signals:
- A close above Sunday’s high → Immediate bullish confirmation.
- A daily RSI bullish divergence, requiring a lower low followed by RSI recovery.
Final Thoughts: Be Patient & Watch for Confirmation
With an important event on Friday, my approach is to wait for confirmation before making long-term moves.
📌 Key takeaways:
✅ Short-term downside is still likely before the next major move.
✅ RSI, Jewel, and Meta Signals suggest a potential bottom forming.
✅ A massive volatility move is brewing—direction TBD.
✅ I will enter long-term longs only with confirmation.
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