Bitcoin’s November Outlook: Correction Deepens, Key Levels to Watch

⚠️ A Correction Long in the Making

For several weeks, analysts have been bracing for a significant correction phase in Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle — and as November begins, that pullback seems well underway.

The data suggests the correction is not random noise: multiple indicators, from daily closures to momentum oscillators, show a pattern consistent with prior mid-cycle retracements. The question now is where this downturn finds its floor, and whether it signals the end of a bull leg or simply a reset before continuation.

How Much WORSE Does It Get In November

---

📆 November by the Numbers: Historical Context

Historically, November is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Out of 15 past Novembers, 10 have closed positive — roughly a 66% success rate.

• Average gain (positive Novembers): +22.8%

• Median gain: +12.8%

• Average loss (negative Novembers): −17.3%

• Median loss: −16.2%

So while seasonality leans bullish, it’s worth remembering that the last two Novembers were strong, and cyclical statistics tend to mean-revert. This year’s setup is starting differently: price is already well below the month’s open, testing historical trend lines around the $103K–$104K zone.

If this month closes red, the median drop of ~14% from the open would target roughly $92K–$94K, aligning perfectly with the long-term 21-EMA and lower trendline support — a key potential reversal area.

---

🧭 When Do November Bottoms Form?

Data shows a clear seasonal pattern:

• In bullish Novembers, BTC usually forms its low by the end of the first week (around November 7th).

• In bearish Novembers, the low typically forms around November 20th, the third week of the month.

So if Bitcoin trades to fresh lows after November 7, historical probability tilts heavily toward a negative monthly close.

---

🪓 Bearish Divergences Are Piling Up

Across major timeframes — daily, weekly, monthly — multiple indicators are showing bearish divergence:

• RSI: Three distinct drives of bearish divergence from the highs in March, June, and September 2024.

• MACD: On track to cross down for the first time since January 2022 — a signal that historically marked cycle tops.

• Stochastic oscillator: Rolling over and losing its “bull control zone” for the first time since February.

• Crown oscillator (custom model): Also turning negative for the first time since the last cycle peak.

If Bitcoin closes November below $97,450, the monthly MACD will officially cross bearish, reinforcing the view that this may be a mid- to late-cycle top.

---

🕒 Bimonthly Signals Strengthen the Bearish Case

Looking at higher timeframes:

• The two-month chart is also crossing bearish for the first time since mid-2021.

• If Bitcoin ends December below $104,350, it would confirm a bimonthly momentum breakdown — a pattern that previously aligned with cycle highs in both 2017 and 2021.

While not definitive, these multi-timeframe alignments strongly suggest that the market is shifting from expansion to contraction, at least temporarily.

---

🧮 The $99,000 Target — Why It Matters

One of the analyst’s favorite technical triggers — the 5-day red moving average crossing below the yellow moving average — has appeared again.
Every time this cross has occurred, price has historically retested the green moving average below. That line currently sits near $99,000.

👉 In other words: a move toward $99K is highly probable, even if it’s just a test before a bounce.

This setup doesn’t guarantee a trend reversal, but it’s a reliable marker of when to avoid bullish bias until that retest completes.

---

🪙 The Tether Dominance Clue

To add confluence, analysts often monitor the Tether dominance chart (USDT.D) — which measures how much of the crypto market is sitting in stablecoins versus risk assets.

• Rising Tether dominance = traders fleeing to safety (bearish for BTC).

• Falling Tether dominance = capital rotation into crypto (bullish for BTC).

Currently, Tether dominance is still trending up and hasn’t yet hit its major resistance trendline near 5.75%. Until that level is reached, downside pressure on Bitcoin likely remains.
If it breaks above 6%, that would confirm a macro risk-off move — signaling prolonged weakness.

---

🧩 Volatility Compression = Big Move Ahead

While the correction feels heavy, volatility metrics (like Bollinger Band Width and the Bull Market Ribbon) are historically compressed — similar to past consolidation zones that preceded major moves.

Low volatility doesn’t last forever; it’s a spring coiling tight. Whether the next expansion is downward continuation or an upside reversal depends largely on macro liquidity, ETF flows, and institutional risk appetite.

---

🧠 Macro Takeaway

Despite the near-term bearish tone, the broader macro picture still shows higher lows across multi-year timeframes. A deeper correction into the mid-$90Ks doesn’t necessarily end the bull cycle — it may just reset sentiment and flush leverage.

Long-term trend followers will note:

• Each major correction in 2023–2024 bottomed near the 55-day and 5-day EMAs.

• Institutional inflows (via ETFs and treasuries) remain positive despite retail panic.

The current structure fits a mid-cycle shakeout, not a terminal breakdown.

---

🧭 Summary

---

💬 Final Thoughts

The message for November is clear: expect continued volatility and downside pressure before the next leg higher.

If Bitcoin holds the $92K–$99K region, it could set the stage for a year-end recovery rally.
If it loses that zone, the next phase of this cycle could morph into a prolonged consolidation — or worse, a new bear phase.

Until then, traders should:

• Stay patient.

• Watch liquidity and dominance charts.

• Avoid overleveraging during compression phases.

“The trend is your friend — until the end of the trend. And right now, that trend still points down.”