Bitcoin’s Path Ahead: Why the Cycle Isn’t Over and Why 2026 Could Be Historic

Bitcoin’s Path Ahead: Why the Cycle Isn’t Over and Why 2026 Could Be Historic

The crypto market has taken a sharp dive, leaving many investors asking the same question: Is this the end of the cycle? Bitcoin recently shattered the hallowed $110,000 support, sparking panic. But history shows us there’s no reason to worry just yet. In fact, Bitcoin is repeating the exact pattern it has followed multiple times this cycle—and every time, it has set up for explosive upside.

Here’s why the pullback is actually healthy, what key levels to watch, and why Q4 2025 and the year 2026 may prove to be some of the most bullish periods in crypto history.

My Exact Plan To Become A MILLIONAIRE From This Crypto Dip

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Bitcoin’s Dance With the 50-Week Moving Average

The most important line on the Bitcoin chart right now is the 50-week simple moving average (SMA)—the “blue line” that has acted as the launchpad for every parabola of this cycle.

• October 2023: Bitcoin reconnected with the 50-week SMA before blasting higher.

• Mid-2024: Same setup, same outcome—another major leg up.

• March 2025: Yet again, Bitcoin tapped the 50-week SMA before ripping higher.

Each reconnection with the blue line has been a buying opportunity of the cycle.

The rule is simple:

• Reconnect = Bullish continuation.

• Break below and close under = Cycle top confirmed.

So far, Bitcoin has never convincingly closed and held below this line during the bull cycle. Even during the 2021 collapse from $65K to $28K, it touched the line but held. Only when BTC decisively lost it in December 2021 did the bear market truly begin.

Right now, the reconnection is happening again. If history rhymes, this is the time to prepare dry powder, not to panic sell.

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The Treasury Effect: Why Bitcoin Diverged From Liquidity

Another key factor driving the recent weakness has been the Treasury General Account (TGA).

• The U.S. government drained liquidity to refill the TGA from ~$300B to over $800B.

• This “refill” directly pulled money out of markets.

• As a result, Bitcoin temporarily decoupled from the M2 money supply chart.

The good news? That refill process is nearly complete. As liquidity normalizes, Bitcoin should realign with M2 and resume its bullish trend.

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Ethereum & Altcoins: The ETH/BTC Signal

Bitcoin isn’t the only chart to watch. ETH/BTC—often called the “altcoin strength chart”—is hovering at its own 50-week SMA.

• Historically, ETH’s bullish phases against Bitcoin align with holding above the 50-week SMA.

• Breaking below signals long stretches of ETH underperformance (like in 2022–2023).

• Currently, ETH/BTC is on track for a bounce, with 0.028 as the critical level.

If ETH holds, the altcoin season revival is likely to ignite into Q4. If it breaks, capital will flow back into BTC dominance.

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The Bigger Picture: Global Liquidity Peaks in 2026

The most powerful catalyst on the horizon isn’t a chart—it’s global liquidity.

• Analysts like Raoul Pal highlight that the global liquidity cycle should peak in mid-2026.

• Historically, crypto bull markets align with liquidity peaks.

• ISM manufacturing data—currently suppressed by high rates—is projected to explode above 60 in 2026, fueling risk assets.

This suggests we haven’t even entered the “banana zone” of this cycle yet. Instead of a blow-off top in 2025, the data suggests an extended cycle into 2026 with one of the largest bull runs ever.

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Regulation: The Floodgates Have Yet to Open

Despite all the innovation, the biggest institutional money is still sidelined. Why? Legislation.

• The bipartisan Market Structure Bill and Stablecoin Bill are pending.

• Once passed, they’ll provide the legal clarity needed for Wall Street to fully embrace crypto.

• Google, for example, has already taken a stake in Bitcoin mining firm Cipher Mining—a hint at what’s coming.

The truth: DeFi season hasn’t even started. Institutions are waiting for regulation. When the green light comes, the inflows will dwarf anything we’ve seen before.

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Case Study: Hyperliquid vs. Aster

One of the hottest narratives in 2025 has been Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange (DEX) dominating trader adoption. Recently, however, Aster, a new project linked to CZ, launched with massive hype and higher open interest than Hyperliquid.

• Short term: Aster siphoned liquidity and attention away from Hyperliquid.

• Long term: Hyperliquid remains stronger in features, robustness, and whale retention.

• Playbook: If Hyperliquid dips below $30, it could be one of the best entry opportunities of the year.

Competition in DeFi isn’t bearish—it validates the demand for decentralized trading.

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The Black Hole Opportunity

Amid the volatility, a hidden gem is emerging: Black Hole, a V33 DEX model delivering staggering volume.

• Nearly $500M in daily volume shortly after launch.

• Tokenomics built around burning and voting rewards.

• Early adopters using compounding strategies have turned $10,000 into nearly $16,000 in just 5 weeks.

With effective yields ranging from 30%–200% APY (depending on emissions), Black Hole represents one of the most misunderstood but potentially explosive opportunities in DeFi right now.

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The Bottom Line: Don’t Sell Your Rocket Ship Too Early

• Bitcoin is simply retesting its historical launchpad, not ending the cycle.

• Ethereum and altcoins remain structurally strong.

• Global liquidity will peak in 2026, aligning perfectly with crypto’s trajectory.

• Regulatory clarity will unleash the largest wave of institutional adoption in history.

• Innovative DeFi projects like Hyperliquid and Black Hole are setting the stage for the next leg.

Yes, waiting is painful. But cycles are lengthening, institutions are coming, and the upside is larger than most can imagine.

The question is simple: Are you willing to wait?